Training on Advanced Public Revenue Forecasting and Debt Management

Module 1: Public Revenue Forecasting and Fiscal Policy Fundamentals

• Overview of fiscal forecasting systems and key drivers

• Understanding macroeconomic indicators and revenue elasticity

• Forecasting challenges in public finance

• Fiscal policy linkages to economic growth and stability

• Case Study: Designing a macro-fiscal forecasting model

Module 2: Quantitative Forecasting Models and Tools

• Time-series and regression models for revenue projection

• Scenario-based and stochastic forecasting approaches

• Data visualization for fiscal forecasting

• Integrating Excel, Power BI, and R for revenue forecasting

• Case Study: Building a revenue projection model for government revenue streams

Module 3: Debt Management Frameworks and Strategies

• Principles of effective debt management

• Understanding domestic vs. external debt portfolios

• Developing a medium-term debt management strategy (MTDS)

• Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and indicators

• Case Study: Evaluating a government’s debt sustainability position

Module 4: Risk Management in Public Debt and Revenue Systems

• Identifying and mitigating debt-related fiscal risks

• Contingent liabilities and guarantees

• Incorporating risk assessment into borrowing decisions

• Fiscal buffers and resilience-building mechanisms

• Case Study: Managing contingent liabilities in public-private partnerships (PPPs)

Module 5: Fiscal Transparency, Reporting, and Accountability

• Frameworks for fiscal transparency and open budget reporting

• Strengthening monitoring and evaluation of public debt

• Use of technology and data platforms in debt management

• International standards: IMF, World Bank, and OECD guidelines

• Case Study: Digital transformation of a national debt reporting system